EV sales to outstrip diesel by next year, predicts industry body

Sales of electric vehicles will exceed sales of new diesels by the end of 2022, according to the body which represents car makers and traders.

The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) predicts that pure EV registrations will oustrip diesels as sales of plug-in vehicles soar.

According to its forecasts, more new plug-in vehicles will be registered by the end of 2021 than in the whole of the previous decade, and battery electric vehicls (BEVs) alone will overtake new diesel and mild hybrid models within the next year.

The uptake of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids has been the only positive trend in the new car market this year and the UK’s automotive trade body now expects total registrations to reach more than a quarter of a million by the end of the year.

Compared with 2020, new EV and PHEV registrations were up 73% and 7.5% respectively in October.

The SMMT forecasts that a total of 287,000 plug-in vehicles will be registered by the end of the year, exceeding the 271,962 registered between 2010 and 2019.

That would mean one in every six new cars has zero-emissions capability.

In contrast, diesel registrations have been falling steadily since the VW Dieselgate scandal and were down 66% in October. Ten years ago diesel accounted for 50% of new car registrations. Now it is 6.6%.

Mike Hawes, chief executive of the SMMT, said that the rapid expansion in the range of plug-in vehicles along with incentives for business and private buyers had helped the growth of the plug-in market but warned that incentives such as the current plug-in car grant were needed to sustain the rate of growth.